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Our marketplace

The world pharmaceutical market grew by 5.2% in 2010 and more people than ever around the world had access to modern medicines, including more patients in emerging markets. Indeed, as the World pharmaceutical markets figure below shows, average revenue growth in Emerging Markets was, at nearly 14%, more than three times the rate in Established Markets.

While demand for medicines and world pharmaceutical markets, especially Emerging Markets, continued to grow in 2010, research-based pharmaceutical companies faced a challenging marketplace. Pricing pressures intensified in most Established Markets with increased competition from generic medicines and greater constraints being placed on our business by payers. In addition, industry-wide R&D productivity continued to decline.

In 2010, the top five pharmaceutical markets in the world remained the US, Japan, Germany, France and China, with the US representing 40.9% of global prescription pharmaceutical sales (2009: 41.2%).

  • Growth drivers
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    Expanding patient populations
    The world population has doubled in the last 50 years from three billion to over six billion and is expected to reach nine billion by 2050. In addition, the number of people who can access modern standards of healthcare continues to increase, particularly among the elderly, who represent a rising proportion of populations in developed nations.

    Furthermore, faster-developing economies, such as China, India and Brazil, offer new opportunities for the industry to help an expanding number of patients who can benefit from medicines. Emerging Markets now represent approximately 85% of the world population. In addition, their pharmaceutical revenues grew significantly faster than those in Established Markets in 2010 and, as the Estimated pharmaceutical market growth 2009-2014 figure below shows, it is estimated that this trend will continue.

    Unmet medical need
    In most established markets, ageing populations and certain lifestyle choices such as smoking, a poor diet and lack of exercise drive an increased incidence of chronic diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular/metabolic and respiratory diseases which require long-term management. The prevalence of chronic disease is increasing in middle-income countries and is now beginning to have an impact in the least developed countries. For example, WHO research shows that about 90% of the premature deaths from non-communicable diseases are in developing countries, amounting to more than eight million deaths annually. WHO estimates that, if nothing is done, deaths from these diseases will increase by a further 17% before 2015, with Africa seeing the greatest increase of 27%, compared with 6% in Europe.

    Advances in science and technology
    Innovation leading to new drugs is critical to meeting unmet medical need. Existing drugs will continue to be important in meeting the growing demand for healthcare, particularly as the increasing use of generic medication improves access and frees up total healthcare funds. At the same time, advances in disease understanding and the application of new technologies will be required to ensure the delivery of new medicines. Such approaches include personalised healthcare and predictive science as well as other new therapeutic modalities.

    The use of large molecules, or biologics, is becoming an increasingly important source of innovation. Forecasts for 2016 predict that of the world’s top 100 pharmaceutical products, 48% of sales will come from biologics. This compares with only 31% in 2009 and 15% in 2000. With advances in the technologies for the design and testing of novel compounds, new opportunities also exist for the use of innovative small molecules as new medicines. Most pharmaceutical companies now pursue both small molecules and biologics R&D.

  • World pharmaceutical markets
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  • Estimated pharmaceutical market growth 2009-2014
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  • The challenges
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